|2022年9月26日（月）15:10 ～ 16:40
15:10 ～ 16:40
- Population Aging, Silver Dividend and Economic Growth (co-author with Donghyun Park)
- Kwanho SHIN (Department of Economics, Korea University／神戸大学社会システムイノベーションセンター)
- In response to the growing concern of population aging, some studies explore possibilities that population aging can act as new opportunities to turn into a “silver dividend.” Just as the demographic dividend focuses on an increase in the working-age population, the silver dividend emphasizes longevity and longer working life as potential sources of growth in an aging society. Extending Lee and Shin (2021) to include less developed countries, we examine the possibility of silver dividend by investigating channels through which population aging affects economic growth. We find that the negative effect of population aging on economic growth is mainly through lowered TFP growth. Labor shortage caused by population aging is mostly offset by higher labor force participation rates of males, females and old workers. In particular, an increase in the labor force participation rate of the elderly is largest. We find that higher life expectancy, human capital or trade openness contributes to increasing the mitigating role of the labor force participation rate of the elderly in response to population aging. By grouping countries according to the magnitude of seven characteristics, (1) old dependency ratio, (2) human capital, (3) life expectancy, (4) labor market flexibility, (5) government size, (6) trade openness, and (7) capital market openness, we find nonlinear effects of population aging. In particular, the effect of population aging is even not negative for countries in low-valued groups of some characteristics. We also confirm that the mitigating effect of the labor force participation rate is not enough to offset the negative effect of population aging. While the shortage of labor force can be completely nullified by higher labor force participation, the negative effect that works mainly through lowered TFP growth is not easy to offset, particularly in countries of high-value characteristics, which are mostly advanced countries.