|日時||2021年6月29日（火）15:00 ～ 17:00|
15:00 ～ 17:00
- COVID-19 Infection and Human Mobility (joint work with Shoka Hayaki and Yoshitaka Ogisu)
- 柴本 昌彦（神戸大学経済経営研究所）
- We argue that human mobility can create an acceleration of the spread of the COVID-19 infection and its cyclicality under their simultaneous relationship.
This paper approaches our argument in three ways.
First, we present empirical evidences showing the presence of stochastic trends and cycles in the new infections and the significant information content of human mobility for the dynamics of new infections using time-series data from February 2020 through May 2021 in Japan.
Second, we present a theoratical model consisting of the infection-mobility trade-off and the mobility demand, which can lead to the trends and cycles in new infections.
Third, we use macroeconometric methodology to reveal the feasibility of the theoretical prediction.
Also, we find that, in case of Japan's March 2020 through May 2021, sources of epidemics of the COVID-19 infection spread vary greatly from period to period, and each changes in trend and cycle in the new infections explain about half of the its variation, respectively.