RIEBセミナー

13:30 ～ 14:30

論題

The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): The Economic Impact on Pakistan

報告者

Matthew McCARTNEY（Oxford School of Global and Area Studies, University of Oxford）

概要

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a $60 billion package of investments that represents a corner of Chinas' promised $1-8 trillion (estimates vary widely) New Silk Road, an ambitious effort to create what one scholar called 'a new Eurasian supercontinent'. The investments in Pakistan are concentrated in energy, transport infrastructure and enterprise zones to promote industry. The most enthusiastic supporters suggest the CPEC can help turn Pakistan into a new Asian miracle economy and help replicate the economic success of South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, or Vietnam in recent decades.
There are good reasons for this optimism, the total value of CPEC (first costed at $46 billion and now projected at more than $60 billion) is a massive multiple of the cumulative Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Pakistan received between 1970 and 2001 (around $7 billion). There is good evidence that the quality of infrastructure in Pakistan is poor relative to other large developing countries and has become a significant constraint on economic growth. The energy projects plan to add over 10,000MW to capacity. This has made an immediate impression on reducing the chronic energy shortages Pakistan faced over the previous decade. China's partnership with other countries from the large, US and USSR, to the small such as Albania, Vietnam, Algeria and North Korea has been warm and then cooled but Pakistan it has been a remarkably durable relationship. Despite absence of cultural similarities and common values this alliance has remained strong. Some have seen the explicit long-term commitment of China to CPEC as a refreshing antidote to the recurring short-term stabilisation and adjustment packages offered by the IMF and the alternating tendency of the US to embrace and reject Pakistan in accordance with fluctuating US foreign policy interests.
The CPEC detractors argue that CPEC may help boost economic growth, but that these benefits are likely to go mostly to China whilst Pakistan will become burdened by debt and a geo-political subservience to China.
There is a need for more careful reflection about CPEC rooted in economic theory and economic evidence. Most of the existing studies lack 'critical appraisal of the projects or any sources that challenge their robustness'. Any such analysis needs to carefully deal with the fact that CPEC is not even due for completion until 2030. We need to remember that Pakistan has a dire record of implementing and benefiting from large-scale donor funded projects – the catastrophic Social Action Programme (SAP) in the 1990s being just one such example.
This presentation looks at the potential for CPEC to boost and sustain economic growth rates in Pakistan as well as investment, exports and industrialisation.

14:30 ～ 15:30

論題

Elite Politics vs. Mass Politics: Electricity Tariffs in India

報告者

加藤　篤史（早稲田大学大学院アジア太平洋研究科）

15:30 ～ 15:40

Coffee Break

15:40 ～ 16:40

論題

Electricity and Agricultural Development in Punjab

報告者

福味　敦（兵庫県立大学国際商経学部）

16:40 ～ 17:40

論題

Social and Economic Changes in a Punjab Village: A Long-Term Perspective

報告者

佐藤　隆広（神戸大学経済経営研究所）