神戸大学金融研究会

15:30 ～ 16:10

論題

Japanese FX interventions in 2026 (with Taro Esaka)

報告者

藤井　隆雄（神戸市外国語大学外国語学部国際関係学科）

概要

This paper examines the effectiveness of Japanese foreign exchange (FX) interventions implemented in 2026. Employing synthetic control methods to construct counterfactual exchange rate paths, we find that the effect of the unilateral yen-buying intervention event between April 30 and May 6, 2026, lasted for only five business days post-event. In contrast, the intervention event from July 30 to August 3, 2026, which included the coordinated intervention on July 31, sustained its impact for more than 10 business days. By introducing and estimating a new metric, the power of the lasting effect (PLE), our comparative analysis reveals that the PLE for the coordinated summer event was approximately 2.5 times larger than that for the unilateral spring event. Furthermore, the PLE for the intervention event in April–May 2026, was substantially weaker than that recorded during historical events in October 2022, April–May 2024, and July 2024. Consequently, our findings demonstrate that although the large-scale unilateral intervention event in spring 2026 yielded limited effectiveness, the coordinated intervention event in summer 2026 proved to be a highly potent policy instrument characterized by strong persistence. The attenuated lasting effect for this unilateral intervention event could stem from the widening of the US-Japan interest rate differential following the intervention.

16:20 ～ 17:30

論題

Identifying the Roles and Importance of Foreign Subsidiaries: The Global Network of Japanese MNEs (with Kiyohiko Ito)

報告者

清田　耕造（慶応義塾大学産業研究所）