RIEB Discussion Paper Series No.2026-13

Title

Forward-looking Intertemporal Optimization and Contingent Rationality in an Agent-based Model

Abstract

The paper introduces forward-looking intertemporal optimization in an agent-based model. Optimization is implemented considering, on the one hand that revision of economic behavior do not occur continuosly over time but only when circumstances suggest or impose it, and, on the other hand, that, given the inherent uncertainty and complexity of the economic system, the planning horizon is finite. We propose a macroeco nomic model with a large population of household agents. Each period a random sample of them will reset their propensities to consume and invest by maximizing their intertemporal utility. The study is a primer in considering the joint effect of heterogeneous agents’ interaction and forward-looking behavior, and provides novel insights into the mechanism of transmission of individual choices to the macroeconomy. The heavy computational tasks are managed through the development of new programming tools. The oexistence of interaction and forward looking be havior generates interesting coordination dynamics. The results suggest that even a tiny fraction of optimizing agents over the whole population has a significant effect of aggregate output, but this effect is nonlinear and conditional on the length of the panning horizon.

Inquiries

Takashi KAMIHIGASHI
Center for Computational Social Science (CCSS)
Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration (RIEB)
Kobe University
Rokkodai-cho, Nada-ku, Kobe
657-8501 Japan
Phone: +81-78-803-7036
FAX: +81-78-803-7059

Corrado Di GUILMI
Economic Discipline Group, University of Technology Sydney, AUSTRALIA
Department of Economics and ManagementUniversity of Florence, ITALY
Center for Computational Social Science, Kobe University, JAPAN
Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University, AUSTRALIA