RIEB Seminar
RIEB Seminar
RIEB Seminar
Jointly Supported by Center for Computational Social Science of Kobe University / Kobe University Center for Social System Innovation / Rokko Forum
| Date & Time | Monday, April 22, 2024, 15:10 - 16:40 |
|---|---|
| Place | Meeting Room at RIEB (Annex, 2nd Floor) |
| Intended Audience | Faculty, Graduate Students, and People with Equivalent Knowledge |
| Langage | English |
| Registration | Registration is required. The seminar details will be sent to the registered emails. Registration Form (Due: Apr 18) |
15:10 - 16:40
- Topic
- Economic Resilience: New Evidence (co-authored with Barry Eichengreen and Donghyun Park)
- Speaker
- Kwanho SHIN (Department of Economics, Korea University)
- Abstract
- We analyze determinants of economic resilience, defined as the tendency of economies to bounce back from negative shocks. Deeper recessions are followed by stronger recoveries, consistent with Friedman’s plucking model of the business cycle. In contrast, longer recessions are associated with weaker recoveries, as if more extensive destruction of human capital and other hysteresis effects limit resilience. Trade openness and exchange rate flexibility, which facilitate the substitution of external demand when domestic demand is weak, are positively associated with resilience, as are a strong current account balance and ample foreign reserves. Financial openness and rapid private credit growth in the preceding expansion contribute negatively, reflecting their legacy of financial problems.