RIEB Seminar

Seminar on the Political Economic Issues in South Asia (Jointly supported by RIEB Seminar / Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A),(B) / TINDAS)

Saturday, Sept. 28, 2019, 1:30pm - 5:40pm

Seminar on the Political Economic Issues in South Asia

Jointly supported by RIEB Seminar / Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A),(B) / TINDAS

Date & Time Saturday, Sept. 28, 2019, 1:30pm - 5:40pm
Place Seminar Room at RIEB (Kanematsu Memorial Hall, 1st Floor)
*Please be aware taht the venue has been changed.
Intended Audience Faculty, Graduate Students, Undergraduates, and People with Equivalent Knowledge
Langage English
1:30pm~2:30pm
Topic
The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): The Economic Impact on Pakistan
Speaker
Matthew McCARTNEY (Oxford School of Global and Area Studies, University of Oxford)
Abstract
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a $60 billion package of investments that represents a corner of Chinas' promised $1-8 trillion (estimates vary widely) New Silk Road, an ambitious effort to create what one scholar called 'a new Eurasian supercontinent'. The investments in Pakistan are concentrated in energy, transport infrastructure and enterprise zones to promote industry. The most enthusiastic supporters suggest the CPEC can help turn Pakistan into a new Asian miracle economy and help replicate the economic success of South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, or Vietnam in recent decades.
There are good reasons for this optimism, the total value of CPEC (first costed at $46 billion and now projected at more than $60 billion) is a massive multiple of the cumulative Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Pakistan received between 1970 and 2001 (around $7 billion). There is good evidence that the quality of infrastructure in Pakistan is poor relative to other large developing countries and has become a significant constraint on economic growth. The energy projects plan to add over 10,000MW to capacity. This has made an immediate impression on reducing the chronic energy shortages Pakistan faced over the previous decade. China's partnership with other countries from the large, US and USSR, to the small such as Albania, Vietnam, Algeria and North Korea has been warm and then cooled but Pakistan it has been a remarkably durable relationship. Despite absence of cultural similarities and common values this alliance has remained strong. Some have seen the explicit long-term commitment of China to CPEC as a refreshing antidote to the recurring short-term stabilisation and adjustment packages offered by the IMF and the alternating tendency of the US to embrace and reject Pakistan in accordance with fluctuating US foreign policy interests.
The CPEC detractors argue that CPEC may help boost economic growth, but that these benefits are likely to go mostly to China whilst Pakistan will become burdened by debt and a geo-political subservience to China.
There is a need for more careful reflection about CPEC rooted in economic theory and economic evidence. Most of the existing studies lack 'critical appraisal of the projects or any sources that challenge their robustness'. Any such analysis needs to carefully deal with the fact that CPEC is not even due for completion until 2030. We need to remember that Pakistan has a dire record of implementing and benefiting from large-scale donor funded projects – the catastrophic Social Action Programme (SAP) in the 1990s being just one such example.
This presentation looks at the potential for CPEC to boost and sustain economic growth rates in Pakistan as well as investment, exports and industrialisation.
2:30pm~3:30pm
Topic
Elite Politics vs. Mass Politics: Electricity Tariffs in India
Speaker
Atsushi KATO (Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University)
3:30pm~3:40pm
Coffee Break
3:40pm~4:40pm
Topic
Electricity and Agricultural Development in Punjab
Speaker
Atsushi FUKUMI (School of Economics and Management, University of Hyogo)
4:40pm~5:40pm
Topic
Social and Economic Changes in a Punjab Village: A Long-Term Perspective
Speaker
Takahiro SATO (RIEB, Kobe University)
ENGLISH