RIEBセミナー RIEB Seminar

日時 2013年12月7日(土)午後3時30分から
会場 神戸大学経済経営研究所 会議室(新館2階)
対象 教員、院生、および同等の知識をお持ちの方
使用言語 日本語
備考 論文のコピーは共同研究推進室にご用意いたします。

3:30pm~5:00pm

報告者 加藤 篤行
所属 早稲田大学大学院アジア太平洋研究科
論題 Current Account Balance: Estimation for OECD Members and Application to Projections for Japan
概要 This paper examines the determinants of current account balance in financially liberalized countries between 1980 and 2011, applying panel cointegration approach to 21 OECD members, and make projections of Japan' current account balance in a couple of decades based on the results of estimation. Both an elasticity and an absorption approaches are examined under a general model of current account balance. From our results, we detect that exchange rates and terms of trade are important determinants of current account balance in an elasticity approach. In absorption, the tax rate has a significant determinant of the government S-I balance. In addition, the crowding out effect is statistically significant in the regression of the private S-I balance function. On the other hand, projections based on the results of estimation illustrate that the deficits in the net exports are structural, instead of temporal. Even a 10% increase in tax revenue ratio to GDP cannot stop increase in the net government debts. In addition, Japan's current account balance is expected to turn to be negative in the latter half of the 2010s. However, the combination of tax increase and successful Abenomics can mitigate an increase in the government debts and a deterioration of current account balance.