RIEBセミナー RIEB Seminar

日時 2012年4月12日(木)午後3時30分から
会場 神戸大学経済経営研究所 共同研究室(第4学舎2階)
対象 教員、院生、および同等の知識をお持ちの方
使用言語 英語
備考 論文のコピーは共同研究推進室にご用意しております。

3:30pm~

報告者 今井 克
所属 マンチェスター大学経済学部
論題 Poverty Dynamics of Households in Rural China: Identifying Multiple Pathways for Poverty Transition
概要 The objective of our study is to identify pattern and causes of households' transitions in and out of poverty using the long household panel data on rural China in the period 1989-2009. We propose a discrete-time multi-spell duration model that not only corrects for correlated unobserved heterogeneity across transitions and various destinations within the transition, but also addresses the endogeneity due to dynamic selection associated with household's livelihood strategies. Duration dependence is generally found to be negative for both poverty exit and re-entry. The household who chose either farming or out-migration as a main livelihood strategy was more likely to escape from this persistent poverty than those who took local non-agricultural employment, while the role of social protection, such as health insurance, was not universally good for alleviating chronic poverty. Overall, the present study emphasises the central role of agriculture in helping the chronically poor escape from poverty.