神戸大学金融研究会(GMAP主催、六甲フォーラム/社会システムイノベーションセンター共催)
Monetary Economics Seminar of Kobe University (Hosted by GMAP, Jointly supported by Rokko Forum / Kobe University Center for Social Systems Innovation)

日時
(Date&Time)
2017年11月2日(木)午後4時30分から午後6時00分まで (Thursday, November 2, 2017, 4:30pm-6:00pm)
会場
(Place)
神戸大学大学院経済学研究科 大会議室(本館2階)
Meeting room, Main Building, Kobe University (2nd Floor)
対象
(Intended Audience)
基本的に会員制の研究会ですが、非会員で関心のある方の参加も歓迎します。
The seminar is primarily for the workshop members. But non-members are also welcome to attend.
備考
(Note)
論文のコピーは当日会場にて配布いたします。
Copies of the paper will be available at the meeting room.

4:30pm~6:00pm

報告者
(Speaker)
Junior MAIH 氏
所属
(Affiliation)
ノルウェー中央銀行(Norges Bank)
論題
(Topic)
Oil and Macroeconomic (in)Stability
概要
(Abstract)
We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New-Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. We find that smaller or fewer oil price shocks did not play a major role in explaining the Great Moderation. Instead oil price shocks are recurrent sources of economic fluctuations. The most important factor reducing overall variability is a decline in the volatility of structural macroeconomic shocks. A change to a more responsive(hawkish) monetary policy regime also played a role.