Estimation of Vulnerability to Poverty Using a Multilevel Longitudinal Model: Evidence from the Philippines


Using the panel data for the Philippines in 2003-2009, we estimate a three-level random coefficient model to measure household vulnerability and to decompose it into idiosyncratic and covariate components. We correct heterogeneity bias using Bell and Jones's (2015) 'within-between' formulation. A majority of the poor and 18 percent of the non-poor are found to be vulnerable to unobservable shocks, while both groups of households are more susceptible to idiosyncratic shocks than to covariate shocks. Adequate safety nets should be provided for vulnerable households that lack access to infrastructure, or are larger in size with more dependents and less-educated heads.


Vulnerability, Poverty, Multilevel model, Panel data, The Philippines

JEL Classification

C23, I32, O15


Christian D. MINA
Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), the Philippines

Katsushi S. IMAI
School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, UK
Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration
Kobe University
Rokkodai-cho, Nada-ku, Kobe
657-8501 Japan
Phone: +81-78-803-7036
FAX: +81-78-803-7059