Fertility, Regional Demographics, and Economic Integration


To explain the links between population distribution and economic integration, we construct a spatial economics model with endogenous fertility. A higher population concentration increases real wages and child-raising costs, thus lowering the fertility rate. However, people migrate to more populated regions to obtain higher real wages. We show that mobility across regions results in more people flowing into highly populated regions, but lowers fertility rates there. The population growth path resembles a logistic curve in the early phase, but population decreases in the last phase. Additionally, economic integration leads to population concentration and decreases population size in the whole economy.


Population change, Migration, Agglomeration, Trade freeness

JEL Classification

F15, J13, R12, R23


Hiroshi GOTO
Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration,
Kobe University
Rokkodai-cho, Nada-ku, Kobe
657-8501 Japan
Phone: +81-78-803-7036
FAX: +81-78-803-7059

Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University