兼松セミナー（現代会計学研究会共催）
Kanematsu Seminar　(Jointly supported by Study Group on Contemporary Accounting)

日時：
(Date&Time)		 2008年6月14日（土）午後3時から （Saturday, June 14, 2008, 3:00pm〜）
報告者：
(Speaker)		 福川　裕徳 （FUKUKAWA Hironori）
所属：
(Affiliation)		 一橋大学大学院商学研究科　（Graduate School of Commerce and Management, Hitotsubashi University）
論題：
(Topic)		 監査におけるリスク評価−確率および信念関数による評価の比較
Assessing Beliefs, Probabilities and Risks in Auditing
概要：
(Abstract)		 This paper focuses on the comparative features of two approaches that may be used to assess risk in auditing. Audit quality can potentially be enhanced by improving auditors' risk assessments. Auditors' risk assessments potentially can be improved in many ways including making them more precise by using quantitative assessments and making them more rigorous by relying on theoretical constructs such as those based on probability theory or the theory of belief functions. However, improving either belief-based or probability-based risk assessments depends on obtaining valid, precise and reliable assessments.
To address this issue, we examine auditors' perceptions and performance when they make belief-based or probability-based risk assessments. Based on experiments conducted in the US and Japan, we find that it is feasible to obtain both coherent probability-based and belief-based assessments of risk and that the qualities of these assessments generally are quite similar. However, these two approaches differ significantly in some respects.
For example, the level of consensus in risk assessments and the assessed strength of evidence are significantly different between the two approaches in some cases. In addition, both the auditors' risk assessment levels and the assessed strength of evidence are affected somewhat by what may be called 'country effects'. Thus while probability-based or belief-based risk assessments are more precise than conventional categorical risk assessments and they are quantitatively similar, each approach exhibits some comparative advantages and disadvantages that need to be considered in audit practice and research.
会場：
(Place)		 神戸大学経済経営研究所　会議室 （研究所新館2階）
RIEB Meeting Room (New Building 2nd floor)
対象：
(Intended Audience)		 教員、院生および同等の知識をお持ちの方
Faculty, Graduate Students and People with Equivalent Knowledge
使用言語：
(Language)		 日本語
Japanese
備考：
(Note)

論文のコピーは研究助成室にご用意いたします。
Copies of the paper will be available at Research Assistant Room.