RIEBセミナー  (RIEB Seminar)

日時:
(Date&Time)
2007年7月4日(水)午後3時から (Wednesday, July 4, 2007, 3:00pm〜)
報告者:
(Speaker)
大久保 敏弘 (OKUBO Toshihiro)
所属:
(Affiliation)
マンチェスター大学 政治・経済ガバナンス研究所 
(Institute for Political and Economic Governance, The University of Manchester)
論題:
(Topic)
The Intranational Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan
国内景気循環: 日本からの証拠
概要:
(Abstract)
The focus of the paper is the Japanese intranational business cycle, that is, the set of regional business cycles that may be identified from data on GDP available at the prefecture level.  In a first step we identify the regional business cycles and the national cycle by applying a Hodrick-Prescott filter.  The bilateral cross correlations of the cyclical deviates across the regions are first compared with those that can be obtained for the US and then for the countries comprising the EuroArea; relative to these points of comparison the Japanese international cycle appears to be more coherent than that characterizing the EuroArea, but less than that characterising the US.  But the strength of these comparisons depends on the time period under study.  Relative to other studies of international cross correlations those obtained for the Japanese intranational cycle appear lower, seemingly not supportive of the hypothesis that specialization within national boundaries will be encouraged by a higher degree of consumption risk-sharing.
Explanation of bilateral business cycle cross correlations in international data sets typically employs many variables which are either inapplicable or unobtainable at the Japanese regional (prefecture) level; examples of theformer include language or genetic differences and other institutional features (e.g. of labour or product markets) that vary between countries. Examples of the latter include trade. Whilst a strength of the Japanese data is its availability for a long time period, the value of the time series is potentially undermined by a high incidence of structural change.  In a panel data estimation framework we explain variation among the bilateral cross-correlations by reference to a set of variables that include, inter alia, size, distance, adjacency, industrial structure and factor endowments. To accommodate the incidence of structural change we ensure that the potential influence of these variables is sensitive to variation through time. This investigation is successful in identifying the main determinants of the bilateral cross-correlations.
会場:
(Place)
神戸大学経済経営研究所 調査室 (兼松記念館1階)
Seminar Room at RIEB (Kanematsu Memorial Hall 1st Floor)
対象:
(Intended Audience)
教員、院生および同等の知識をお持ちの方
Faculty, Graduate Students and People with Equivalent Knowledge
使用言語:
(Language)
日本語
Japanese
備考:
(Note)

論文のコピーは研究助成室にご用意しております。
Copies of the paper are available at Research Assistant Room.