RIEBセミナー (RIEB Seminar)
日時: (Date&Time) |
2007年7月4日(水)午後3時から (Wednesday, July 4, 2007, 3:00pm〜) |
報告者: (Speaker) |
大久保 敏弘 (OKUBO Toshihiro) |
所属: (Affiliation) |
マンチェスター大学 政治・経済ガバナンス研究所 (Institute for Political and Economic Governance, The University of Manchester) |
論題: (Topic) |
The Intranational Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan 国内景気循環: 日本からの証拠 |
概要: (Abstract) |
The focus of the paper is the Japanese intranational business cycle, that
is, the set of regional business cycles that may be identified from data
on GDP available at the prefecture level. In a first step we identify
the regional business cycles and the national cycle by applying a Hodrick-Prescott
filter. The bilateral cross correlations of the cyclical deviates
across the regions are first compared with those that can be obtained for
the US and then for the countries comprising the EuroArea; relative to
these points of comparison the Japanese international cycle appears to
be more coherent than that characterizing the EuroArea, but less than that
characterising the US. But the strength of these comparisons depends
on the time period under study. Relative to other studies of international
cross correlations those obtained for the Japanese intranational cycle
appear lower, seemingly not supportive of the hypothesis that specialization
within national boundaries will be encouraged by a higher degree of consumption
risk-sharing. Explanation of bilateral business cycle cross correlations in international data sets typically employs many variables which are either inapplicable or unobtainable at the Japanese regional (prefecture) level; examples of theformer include language or genetic differences and other institutional features (e.g. of labour or product markets) that vary between countries. Examples of the latter include trade. Whilst a strength of the Japanese data is its availability for a long time period, the value of the time series is potentially undermined by a high incidence of structural change. In a panel data estimation framework we explain variation among the bilateral cross-correlations by reference to a set of variables that include, inter alia, size, distance, adjacency, industrial structure and factor endowments. To accommodate the incidence of structural change we ensure that the potential influence of these variables is sensitive to variation through time. This investigation is successful in identifying the main determinants of the bilateral cross-correlations. |
会場: (Place) |
神戸大学経済経営研究所 調査室 (兼松記念館1階) Seminar Room at RIEB (Kanematsu Memorial Hall 1st Floor) |
対象: (Intended Audience) |
教員、院生および同等の知識をお持ちの方 Faculty, Graduate Students and People with Equivalent Knowledge |
使用言語: (Language) |
日本語 Japanese |
備考: (Note) |
論文のコピーは研究助成室にご用意しております。 |