RIEBセミナー (RIEB Seminar)
| 日時： （Date&Time) |
2006年12月21日（木）午後3時半から （Thursday, December 21, 2006, 3:30pm〜） |
| 報告者： （Speaker） |
柴山 克行 (SHIBAYAMA Katsuyuki) |
|
所属： （Affiliation） |
ケント大学経済学部 (Department of Economics, University of Kent) |
| 論題： （Topic） |
Inventory Cycles |
| 概要： (Abstract) |
This paper studies a rational, dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model with a stockout constraint and production chain. The model replicates the inventory stylized facts, which have been puzzling in the inventory literature. Facing a stockout constraint, firms want to have inventories to avoid the loss of a pro-table sales opportunity, implying that inventory investment is positively correlated with sales. Moreover, when a positive demand shock hits-firms, their inventories decrease, while production increases to replenish the declined inventories, and in addition, to catch up with the new higher sales level. Thus, production is more volatile than sales. Furthermore, our model improves the standard RBC model in terms of the relative volatility of labour hours. With the production chain, replenishing the inventories of one firm means reducing inventories of other firms. Thus, in aggregate, inventories, and hence intermediate goods, cannot adjust quickly. Consequently, the movement of labour hours must be larger than the standard RBC model to compensate for the sluggish movement of intermediate goods (capital cannot adjust quickly as in the standard RBC model). Therefore, the volatility of hours is higher, and as a result, the correlation between labour productivity and hours is lower in our model than in the standard RBC model. This mechanism explains why the estimated adjustment speed of inventories is implausibly very slow, another puzzle in the inventory literature. We claim that it should indeed be slow. In fact, our model exhibits a persistent (and countercyclical) inventory to sales ratio as in the data, which is further evidence of the slow adjustment of inventories. Finally, our model can mimic so-called inventory cycles in sample paths. |
| 会場： (Place) |
神戸大学経済経営研究所 調査室 （兼松記念館1階） Seminar Room at RIEB (Kanematsu Memorial Hall 1st Floor) |
| 対象： （Intended Audience) |
教員，院生，および同等の知識をお持ちの方 Faculty, Graduate Students, and People with Equivalent Knowledge |
| 使用言語 （Language) |
日本語 Japanese |
| 備考： (Note) |
論文のコピーは研究助成室にご用意しております。 |