概要:
(Abstract) |
This paper investigates prospects of a currency union in East Asia, focusing on
trade and financial integration occurring in the region. We find, based on a
dynamic factor model, regional common shocks have been quantitatively important
for output variations in the Asian economies. We expect that continuing trade
integration in the region will lead to further synchronization of business
cycles, thereby encouraging East Asian countries to create a currency union in
the region. In contrast to trade, however, financial liberalization in East Asia
tends to lead to more global integration, rather than regional integration, of
the financial systems, and thereby is not likely to develop favorable conditions
for forming a regional currency union among East Asian countries. |