Prospects of the Vietnamese Economy in the Medium and Long Run: A Dynamic CGE Analysis

Prospects of the Vietnamese Economy in the Medium and Long Run:
A Dynamic CGE Analysis

EZAKI Mitsuo
Le Anh SON

Abstract

Socialist Republic of Vietnam joined ASEAN in July 1995 soon after the normalization of diplomatic relations with the United States. Vietnam is also anticipated to join APEC in the very near future.
As a member of ASEAN, the government of Vietnam is now preparing for participation in AFTA under the sixth five-year plan (1996-2000) where measures are being taken to increase the competitiveness of Vietnamese goods and services and to satisfy the necessary conditions for participation in regional free trade agreements. The purpose of this paper is to investigate conditions and requirements for realizing the targets of the current five-year plan and to make quantitatively clear the structural characteristics of the Vietnamese economy. The analysis and framework of this paper will be the starting point to investigate the trade liberalization and facilitation policies of Vietnam not only as a member of ASEAN but also as a future member of APEC.