Title

General Equilibrium Assessments of Trade Liberalization in APEC Countries

Abstract

At the turn of this millennium, most the APEC countries have embarked upon an ambitious plan for open multilateralism. Using an 18-region, 16-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the global economy, we evaluate the effects of APEC trade liberalization on member-country real GDP, sectoral output, exports and imports by the year 2020. The results suggest that developing members would be able to realize significantly greater gains in real GDP than developed members. Although the adjustments may be difficult for some groups, they are necessary if each member economy and the region as a whole are to realize the full economic potential. In addition, speeding up the liberalization process would be good First Aid for the East Asian economies that are currently experiencing economic crisis.

Hiro LEE
Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration
Kobe University
Rokkodai-cho, Nada-ku, Kobe
657-8501 Japan
Phone: (81) 78 803 7036
Fax: (81) 78 803 7059

David RORAND-HOLST
Department of Economics
Mills College
Oakland, CA 94613
USA
and
Centre for Economic Policy Research
London UK

Dominique van der MENSBRUGGHE
The World Bank
Washington, DC 20433
USA